Economists have warned that Donald Trump’s decision to impose a $100,000 (£74,096) fee on H-1B visas for skilled foreign workers could slow US economic growth.
On Friday, Trump signed a proclamation introducing the new fee—60 times the current cost—in a bid to encourage companies to hire more American workers. The move poses a particular challenge for big tech companies, which rely heavily on H-1B visas to bring in engineers, scientists, and coders from abroad, especially from India.
Atakan Bakiskan, an economist at investment bank Berenberg, described the measure as an example of the Trump administration’s “anti-growth policymaking.”
“By making it very expensive for companies to attract foreign talent and forcing some international students to leave the country after graduation, the brain drain will weigh heavily on productivity,” he said. “Investments in artificial intelligence are unlikely to offset the damage caused by the loss of human capital under restrictive immigration policies.”
Berenberg recently downgraded its US economic growth forecast from 2% at the start of the year to 1.5%. Bakiskan warned that unless Trump reverses course, even this reduced estimate “may soon look optimistic.” He added: “Taken together, the erosion of trust in institutions, loss of human capital, tariffs, chronic uncertainty, and unsustainable fiscal policies can raise the tail risk of a financial crisis in the US. In the long run, they may set a path for an even weaker dollar and higher long-term yields.”
Jim Reid, a market strategist at Deutsche Bank, said the fee “caused a huge amount of uncertainty over the weekend for those that rely on it.”
Trump’s announcement triggered chaos in the tech industry, with some Silicon Valley firms urging employees not to travel outside the US. The White House later clarified that the fee would apply only to new applicants and would be a one-time payment.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at broker XTB, noted that Amazon has the highest number of H-1B workers, followed by Microsoft, Meta (Facebook), Apple, and Google.
“Although these companies can afford the higher visa costs, other sectors that rely on H-1B visas, such as healthcare and education, may face challenges in future recruitment,” she said.
In the first half of 2025, Amazon had more than 10,000 H-1B visas approved, while Microsoft and Meta each received over 5,000. The H-1B programme annually offers 65,000 visas for specialised workers, with an additional 20,000 reserved for holders of advanced degrees. India has been the largest beneficiary, accounting for 71% of approved visas last year.
The Indian government criticised the new fee, warning it could have “humanitarian consequences” by disrupting families. On Sunday, India’s commerce minister, Piyush Goyal, said: “They are also a little afraid of our talent. We have no objection to that.”
The announcement also affected Indian tech stocks, with shares of Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services falling by around 3% on Monday. Both companies use the H-1B programme to deploy thousands of Indian workers to clients in the US
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